General Pervez Musharraf would have learnt by now that it is not easy to live by the sword. The Taliban is not his main worry. Not right now, with the backing of the US government. But he will do well to observe Osama bin Laden’s movements. When the war is over, and the US forces are withdrawn, he may need to use the same caves that bin Laden is using now.

Given the supersonic speed at which Musharraf has switched sides, the US too would do well to see that he is not playing a double game. Pakistan’s stability is also of major concern not only for Pakistanis, but, and more importantly, for the civilized world as well. Its nuclear arsenal is a subject of debate due to its possibility of falling into the hands of rogue nations. In such an eventuality, the US itself could be topping the threat chart followed by Israel and India. Economically too, Pakistan is likely to be tightly strapped. With millions of Afghan refugees pouring in, who will invariably dissolve into the interiors and eat into the already scarce resources, it will have to bear with multiple crises and increased violence.

Besides, as and when the Talibani extremists, who have been running scores of training camps inside Pakistan and are well versed with its interiors, raise the battle cries against Musharraf, they could ignite a fire that the General may find difficult to extinguish. Not only the Pashtuns, the Northern Alliance supporters would be awaiting their turn to avenge what they term as treachery by the Musharraf government. It could also provide a platform to the Baluchis, who have been waiting in the wings with their demand for a separate state. This may also result in stoppage of flow of drug money and the consequential drying up of training camps.

For Pakistan, it would be difficult to operate and surgically remove the deeply entrenched cancer of terrorist organisations, like Jaish-e-Mohammed, that have been targeting civilians. Finally, a civil war is the last thing Pakistan would like on its plate. It is quite likely that the Northern Alliance, an organisation of tribal groups mainly from Uzbeks, Hazaras and Tajiks, will have its say in the new government in Afghanistan. Sandwiched between its traditional enemy, India, on the one side and the Afghan warriors on the other, an increased Russian influence would only add injury to the Pakistani wounds. A lost cause of its Kashmir agenda could further add to Musharraf’s cup that is filled to the brim with woes. He has a lot of balancing act to do while somersaulting between the devil and the deep sea. Stepped up violence and terrorism by the Pakistan-based extremists may act as a flashpoint for another Indo-Pak war that he can ill-afford.

India, on the other hand, does not have to unduly worry about the US taking increased interest in Pakistan. Having faced acts of terrorism on its own soil, the US will not hesitate to twist arms to force Musharraf eliminate terrorists of all caste and creed. It appreciates the fact that the fugitive freed after the Indian Airlines hijack at Kandahar was responsible for funding Al-Qaeda operations in the US that brought down the twin towers.

With the split of erstwhile USSR, Pakistan no longer fits into the strategic map either. Besides, India’s improved relationship with the US is based more on economic ties, democratic values and the contribution made by the Indian-Americans. At the same time, India should realise that a burning Pakistan cannot provide permanent peace at the Indian shores.

Given an opportunity, it should opt for a diplomatic remedy. Musharraf acquired power through a military coup. As expected, he did everything that a dictator could to remain in power. In the process, he has burnt his bridges with the very forces that supported him in his cause. It is highly unlikely that there would be a democratically elected government in Pakistan in the near future. Musharraf would, therefore, be expected to continue with his tightrope walk, hoping that his armed forces would remain loyal to him and provide him with the necessary support. Given a choice, not many would like to put themselves in his place and, instead, would like to wait and watch from a distance. Politically, therefore, it would be wise for India to let the US tighten screws and smoke out the militants, thereby bringing peace in the region. While the US would feel happy to have achieved its aim, India stands a great chance to emerge even stronger.